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Abstract (D3.S9)

This deliverable will be developed in the framework of the EC co-funded H2020 Future Circular Collider Innovation Study (FCCIS). It includes quantitative, conservative monetary estimates limited to justifiable causal relationships with the FCC programme for a number of socio-economic impact pathways, which have been defined in a plan for the analysis of the FCC socio-economic impacts:

▪ Value of training: An updated report concerning the value of training at the FCC-ee for undergraduate and graduate students, post-doctoral researchers and early-stage researchers and engineers, measured using an expected lifetime salary premium earned in comparison to people with comparable profiles but who do not have the opportunity to take part in an international, high-tech project such as the FCC. This estimate is based on anonymous surveys of persons who have been active in CERN projects and who report on their career and salary evolution.

▪ Industrial spillovers: Forecast the value of industrial spillovers for the construction and operation of the various FCC-ee scenarios. Industrial spillovers are a measurement of the added earnings that companies are able to obtain as a consequence of high technological intensity contracts relating to the design, construction and operation of the FCC research infrastructure. This estimate is based on long-term observations of the evolution of companies that have worked and are currently working with CERN, in particular on the LHC programme.

▪ Value generated by on-site visitors: This refers to visitors who will explore the FCC construction site, the LHC experiments becoming accessible to the public throughout more extended periods and the FCC experiments. The quantitative estimates are, on the one hand, based on internationally established leisure time values used in the "Travel Cost Method" and on the result of a survey on the actual expenditure of visitors coming to CERN. As more data becomes available, the estimates may be extended to off-site visitors of museums and exhibitions that feature CERN FCC research programme-related shows, as is the case today with the LHC programme.

▪ Estimated "Public Good Value": this quantity represents a monetary estimate that the general public or selected population groups associate with the scientific research carried out by a new particle collider. The value is estimated by specialised companies using the so called "contingent valuation", a survey-based economic technique for the valuation of non-market resources, such as environmental preservation. These companies ensure that an adequate sample of the population is compiled, that the surveys are administered in a quality-assured process and that the descriptive statistics are carried out according to established international norms as a basis of the data to serve for further analysis. Based on the data obtained, economists develop a parameterised model that allows an overall estimate to be made of the Public Good Value for a set of countries who are considered to contribute to and profit from the FCC research infrastructure.

▪ Job market creation: The estimation for the job market considers nonscience and non-research jobs that are directly related to the construction and operation of the research infrastructure, indirect jobs upstream required to produce the equipment for the construction and to supply the resources and services needed for operation and the induced jobs that are a result of the construction and operation activities. As far as possible, job creation effects are reported regionally in a global context, i.e. jobs activated in different countries, based on past involvement of countries in CERN projects and based on their financial contributions in the past. These estimates are developed based on a standard Input-Output model that has been developed specifically to capture such effects for the EU and the OECD by a group of economics researchers and which is regularly used by EU member states to estimate the effects of infrastructure development projects.

▪ Local spending by FCC users: The economic value of expenditure of residents in the region who are actively involved in the FCC programme is estimated based on data from national statistics. This information may also indicate the economic loss that the region would experience if the FCC research infrastructure was not built. ▪ Economic value and environmental carbon footprint reduction potentials: Present preliminary results from the estimation of the economic value and environmental carbon footprint reduction potentials relating to the recovery of waste heat from particle accelerators and experiments, based on average market prices for conventional and waste-heat-based district heating installations elsewhere in Europe. The estimates follow a conservative approach, considering that only a fraction of the heat can be effectively captured and supplied.

▪ The value of the excavated material: Estimation of the market value of products and services that potentially can be created from re-using some of the excavated materials. These estimates are based on the business plans that companies have been requested to supply in the framework of the "Mining the Future'' challenge-based innovation competition for the identification of re-use pathways for the "molasse" materials that are not re-usable at present. Considering that the Host States have not yet validated a placement scenario, no detailed information is currently available about the geological conditions in the vicinity of the preferred scenario, and the uncertainty about the possibility of re-using the excavated materials is therefore high. The estimates will thus be based on assumptions for being able to re-use only a small fraction of the materials, merely in order to highlight the potential. Detailed estimates will only be possible once pilot plants for the selected re-use cases have been built and demonstrated, once more detailed information about the composition of the materials becomes available and once the excavation methods have at least been defined for the purpose of such a study (note: the chosen excavation methods have a significant impact on the reusability of the excavated materials and may also be driven by some of the re-use pathways).

▪ Estimating the residual asset values: This estimate, based on standard depreciation rates, is crucial for the demonstration of the sustainability of the FCC, since the sustainability comes from the concept of presenting a long-term integrated FCC-ee/FCC-hh programme in which a subsequent high-energy hadron collider leverages the infrastructures that have been built up in a first phase. These assets include but may not be limited to subsurface and surface site structures, road and railway accesses, electricity and water connection supply and treatment infrastructures, radiofrequency systems, cryogenics systems, cooling and ventilation, transport and installation facilities.

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Topic revision: r1 - 2023-02-14 - PanagiotisCharitos
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