-- AmnonHarel - 12-Sep-2010

## Alternative sideband fits

 nominal - 489-788GeV full - 156GeV and up 156-788GeV -0.050 +/- 0.013 -0.037 +/- 0.005 -0.036 +/- 0.005 0.011 +/- 0.013 0.033 +/- 0.005 0.033 +/- 0.005
The errors shown here are the statistical errors reported by the fitter (ROOT's standard chi^2 fit). They are superceded by the statistical errors from the ensemble testing, which are significantly bigger.

## Consistency statistic

### Plots

NLO+NPcorr
C with systematics (the usual statistic) C without systematics
plot_fg.root
NLO+NPcorr - but without modeling uncertainties (NP corr & PDF)
plot_fg.root_nm
Pythia
C with systematics (the usual statistic) C without systematics
plot_fg_pyt.root

This shows that the data is only consistent with our model when the systematic uncertainties are taken into account. Arguably, the model uncertainties should not be included in this comparison, how ever this has little effect. The choice of SM model is not crucial. All the above are not surprising given the input data and SM models - see Jim's data plot #1, data plot #2, and uncertainties page. On the other hand, some features are noteworthy for what they tell us of the data. Namely, the large difference between the two test statistics in the data (indicating that the data comes from a different distribution?) and the overall level of agreements between data and SM models.

BTW: We should improve data plot #2,

#### Correlations between feel good statistics

• Note the black triangle that indicates the values in our data
• The black dashed line is x=y

### Table

bin # data SM Statistics only With systematics
(NLO w. NPcorr) stat. error contribution total total error contribution total
1 0.50672 0.517433 0.0165322 0.419871 0.419871 0.0333583 0.103126 0.103126
2 0.49558 0.520195 0.0218004 1.27485 1.69472 0.0359925 0.467699 0.570824
3 0.505894 0.522922 0.0288795 0.347644 2.04237 0.0405666 0.176189 0.747013
4 0.493892 0.525597 0.0385961 0.674781 2.71715 0.0478999 0.438106 1.18512
5 0.482169 0.528155 0.0135796 11.4679 14.185 0.0312853 2.1606 3.34572
6 0.517212 0.530546 0.0187997 0.503015 14.688 0.033901 0.154688 3.50041
7 0.494711 0.532747 0.0224031 2.88256 17.5706 0.0361143 1.10927 4.60968
8 0.496565 0.534778 0.0285179 1.79545 19.366 0.0401775 0.904578 5.51426
9 0.511478 0.536579 0.0109993 5.20767 24.5737 0.0303682 0.683185 6.19744
10 0.492249 0.53819 0.0131865 12.1377 36.7114 0.0312656 2.15905 8.35649
11 0.48489 0.539546 0.0162432 11.322 48.0334 0.0325728 2.81552 11.172
12 0.485567 0.540677 0.0200651 7.54349 55.5769 0.0345943 2.53772 13.7097
13 0.477836 0.541601 0.0241731 6.95822 62.5351 0.0371366 2.94821 16.658
14 0.540691 0.542334 0.0322465 0.0025955 62.5377 0.0428829 0.00146764 16.6594
15 0.475483 0.542908 0.034561 3.80603 66.3438 0.0447181 2.27341 18.9328
16 0.51357 0.543346 0.0435832 0.46676 66.8105 0.0521629 0.325843 19.2587
17 0.460177 0.543671 0.0490584 2.89657 69.7071 0.0570348 2.14304 21.4017
18 0.443089 0.543914 0.0572215 3.10466 72.8118 0.0644529 2.44708 23.8488
19 0.560694 0.544103 0.070781 0.0549417 72.8667 0.0792203 0.0438594 23.8927
20 0.449153 0.544256 0.0877034 1.17588 74.0426 0.0931079 1.04333 24.936
21 0.488095 0.544394 0.112687 0.249601 74.2922 0.117313 0.230303 25.1663
22 0.469697 0.544524 0.127399 0.344977 74.6372 0.1318 0.322322 25.4886
23 0.487805 0.54465 0.175409 0.105022 74.7422 0.17887 0.100997 25.5896
24 0.576923 0.544764 0.181538 0.031381 74.7736 0.186334 0.0297863 25.6194
25 0.625 0.544852 0.199324 0.161681 74.9352 0.204018 0.154328 25.7737
26 0.473684 0.544892 0.289776 0.060385 74.9956 0.292354 0.0593251 25.833
27 0.625 0.544851 0.240542 0.111023 75.1067 0.24495 0.107063 25.9401
28 0.3 0.544691 0.382066 0.410166 75.5168 0.38436 0.405283 26.3454
29 0.8 0.544365 0.473428 0.291562 75.8084 0.475979 0.288446 26.6338
31 0.25 0.543001 0.851947 0.118281 75.9267 0.853182 0.117939 26.7518
33 0.333333 0.540285 1.28723 0.0258481 75.9525 1.28814 0.0258117 26.7776
• Note that only bins which have at least one entry in both inner and outer bins are used.

## Limits on contact interactions

Final results - more CLs limiting values visible due to outragously large ensembles
with systematics
zoomed in full
clim1n_25KI2_88d.root
without systematics
zoomed in full
clim2n_30KI2_88d.root

BTW: the points missing from the no-systematics plot are missing because I didn't generate them. Can be easily fixed if there's any reason to do so.

### Z plots

Notes:
• the CLs limit at 4.2TeV is very doubtful (~50% chance of it not really being there, in which case it may lie lower and may not exist at all).
• the CLs limit at 4.05TeV appears low in this plot. In fact, there's about a 50% chance that it belongs at -2.645 (which is still below the data, but makes a nicer straight line).
• the existence of the CLs limit at 4.1TeV is driven by the point plotted - our confidence is about 1.5 sigma in MC statistic - again, this is a harder question than whether we exclude this lambda value)
• These and other details are available in https://twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/Main/AmnonHarelCLsInDCR#Final_results

### Presentation:

Present as a Z-plot with only the point at 4.05TeV? More conservative - show 4.05 and 4.1. We have an answer ready if people within and outside CMS want to know more. No one said we got to have a short answer to people who are trying to 2nd guess us.

## Technical tests

### Systematic variations output from the statistics code

The following plots shows the systematic variations possible in the statistics code. In the limit setting, NPcorr and PDF are used as flat uncertainties. Their full shapes are only used in the QCD ensembles for the p-values. Similarly, the QCD model systematic is only used in limit setting (it's |Pythia-NLOcorr|).

## Unsorted Attachments

Topic attachments
I Attachment History Action Size Date Who Comment
png clim1n_25KI2_88d.png r2 r1 manage 17.7 K 2010-10-07 - 23:12 AmnonHarel
root clim1n_25KI2_88d.root r1 manage 16.2 K 2010-10-07 - 22:44 AmnonHarel
png clim1n_25Kz0_2I2_88d.png r1 manage 19.2 K 2010-10-07 - 22:48 AmnonHarel
png clim1n_4KI2_88d.png r1 manage 19.6 K 2010-09-12 - 23:56 AmnonHarel
root clim1n_4KI2_88d.root r1 manage 16.1 K 2010-09-13 - 01:03 AmnonHarel limits with systematics
png clim1n_4Kz0_2I2_88d.png r1 manage 19.4 K 2010-09-13 - 01:06 AmnonHarel
png clim2n_30KI2_88d.png r1 manage 17.4 K 2010-09-24 - 13:34 AmnonHarel
root clim2n_30KI2_88d.root r1 manage 16.6 K 2010-09-24 - 13:34 AmnonHarel
png clim2n_30Kz0_1I2_88d.png r1 manage 20.8 K 2010-09-24 - 13:34 AmnonHarel
png clim2n_4KI2_88d.png r1 manage 17.5 K 2010-09-13 - 01:08 AmnonHarel
root clim2n_4KI2_88d.root r1 manage 16.4 K 2010-09-13 - 01:04 AmnonHarel limits without systematics
png clim2n_4Kz0_1I2_88d.png r1 manage 21.0 K 2010-09-13 - 01:08 AmnonHarel
png cz1n_25KI2_88d.png r2 r1 manage 10.2 K 2010-10-11 - 20:25 AmnonHarel
root cz1n_25KI2_88d.root r2 r1 manage 14.4 K 2010-10-11 - 20:26 AmnonHarel
png entries_per_lambda.png r1 manage 7.3 K 2010-09-12 - 23:53 AmnonHarel entries per lambda (both ensembles) In cid_s6nF20I2_88_4K_v4.root
png plot_fg.png r4 r3 r2 r1 manage 17.3 K 2010-10-08 - 13:45 AmnonHarel
root plot_fg.root r4 r3 r2 r1 manage 17.2 K 2010-10-08 - 13:46 AmnonHarel
png plot_fg_nm.png r2 r1 manage 19.6 K 2010-10-08 - 13:52 AmnonHarel
root plot_fg_nm.root r2 r1 manage 17.4 K 2010-10-08 - 13:53 AmnonHarel
png plot_fg_pyt.png r2 r1 manage 20.5 K 2010-10-08 - 14:06 AmnonHarel
root plot_fg_pyt.root r1 manage 17.9 K 2010-10-08 - 14:07 AmnonHarel
png plot_fgs_n.png r2 r1 manage 17.1 K 2010-10-08 - 13:54 AmnonHarel
png plot_fgs_y.png r2 r1 manage 18.8 K 2010-10-08 - 13:54 AmnonHarel
png plot_fgso.png r2 r1 manage 20.1 K 2010-10-08 - 13:47 AmnonHarel
png plot_fgso_pyt.png r2 r1 manage 19.7 K 2010-10-08 - 14:08 AmnonHarel
png plot_sm_syst.png r3 r2 r1 manage 19.1 K 2010-10-06 - 09:44 AmnonHarel
root plot_sm_syst.root r3 r2 r1 manage 21.4 K 2010-10-06 - 09:43 AmnonHarel
png plot_sm_syst2.png r1 manage 18.0 K 2010-10-06 - 09:42 AmnonHarel
root plot_sm_syst2.root r1 manage 20.2 K 2010-10-06 - 09:43 AmnonHarel
Topic revision: r29 - 2011-01-09 - AmnonHarel

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