-- AmnonHarel - 11-Jul-2010

Method

We currently have up to 50% increases between consecutive lambda points. This causes:
  • ill defined CLs limits. In particular, it's rare to find the +1 sigma CLs limit in the limit plots
  • uncertainties due to non-linearities between the existing lambda values

To work around these issues, I hand picked data points from many ensembles, looking for points that are particularly sound. I.e. the limits come out to be near a known lambda. The data points are shown here:
fl_all_v7.png

  • the upper points & curves are for the +1 sigma limits, the middle for the median limits, and the lower for the -1 sigma limits.
  • cyan curves are for f(x)=exp( p0 + p1*ln(x) )
  • orange curves (for the +/-1 sigma limits) are for the same function, with p1 fixed to its value for the nominal points
  • blue curves are for f(x)=exp( p0 + p1*ln(x) + p2*ln(x)**2 )

Further details:

  • the SM fit is only validated up to Mjj = ~3.5TeV, and misbehaves >4TeV. Hence we do not look for limits >3TeV!
  • data bins are used up to 4TeV, but there's really no statistics for Mjj>3TeV in the luminosities we use.

Suggested plot

Based on the 2nd order fits (blue curves) above:
  • The solid curve is the median prediction, the dashed ones are the predictions +/-1sigma away (i.e., about 68% of pseudo SM dataset lie between them).
Take 1 After Chris' requests
fl_v7_np.png fl_v8.png
And comments from Greg And a new range, with extrapolation, as requested by Greg
fl_v9.png fl_v10.png

Caveats

  • results >3TeV are unreliable - not sure SM fit is good enough.
  • a small change was made since the first plots - now using each CI until the curve turns over, rather than till lambda
Topic attachments
I Attachment History Action Size Date Who Comment
PNGpng fl_all_v6.png r1 manage 18.4 K 2010-07-11 - 13:22 AmnonHarel future limits - data and fits
PNGpng fl_all_v7.png r3 r2 r1 manage 17.4 K 2010-07-12 - 09:30 AmnonHarel future limits - data and fits
Unknown file formateps fl_v10.eps r2 r1 manage 11.8 K 2010-07-21 - 20:29 AmnonHarel  
PDFpdf fl_v10.pdf r1 manage 15.6 K 2010-07-14 - 00:56 AmnonHarel future limits - extrapolated
PNGpng fl_v10.png r1 manage 22.5 K 2010-07-14 - 00:56 AmnonHarel future limits - extrapolated
Unknown file formatroot fl_v10.root r1 manage 19.1 K 2010-07-14 - 00:57 AmnonHarel future limits - extrapolated
PNGpng fl_v6_np.png r1 manage 18.8 K 2010-07-11 - 13:30 AmnonHarel future limits
Unknown file formatroot fl_v6_np.root r1 manage 14.1 K 2010-07-11 - 13:33 AmnonHarel TCanvas with future limit plots
PNGpng fl_v7_np.png r4 r3 r2 r1 manage 18.6 K 2010-07-12 - 09:43 AmnonHarel future limits
Unknown file formatroot fl_v7_np.root r4 r3 r2 r1 manage 14.1 K 2010-07-12 - 09:43 AmnonHarel TCanvas with future limit plots
PNGpng fl_v8.png r2 r1 manage 22.0 K 2010-07-12 - 20:17 AmnonHarel future limits (incl. no syst., w.o. 0-suppresion)
Unknown file formatroot fl_v8.root r1 manage 15.2 K 2010-07-12 - 15:52 AmnonHarel TCanvas with future limit plots
Unknown file formateps fl_v9.eps r1 manage 10.3 K 2010-07-13 - 20:19 AmnonHarel  
PDFpdf fl_v9.pdf r1 manage 14.8 K 2010-07-13 - 20:20 AmnonHarel  
PNGpng fl_v9.png r1 manage 21.5 K 2010-07-12 - 22:42 AmnonHarel future limits (following more comments from Greg)
Unknown file formatroot fl_v9.root r1 manage 17.5 K 2010-07-13 - 20:19 AmnonHarel TCanvas with future limit plots
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Topic revision: r9 - 2010-07-21 - AmnonHarel
 
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