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-- Main.ThomasKlijnsma - 2018-02-06

---++ Pre-approval comments v1


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*<literal>1. Fill in the StatComm questionnaire: http://cern.ch/cms-stat-questionnaire</literal>*

Questionnaire is filled in and submitted.


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*<literal>2. Datacards should be checked and approved by the combination group</literal>*

An svn repository (svn+ssh://svn.cern.ch/reps/cmshcg/trunk/cadi/HIG-17-028) is requested, and all datacards will be uploaded once the repository is created. Note that almost all datacards will be updated once the new hgg binning is obtained.


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*<literal>3. Fill in the HIG Muon questionnaire: https://twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/CMS/TWikiHIG-MUO</literal>*

Since this analysis concerns a combination, filling in the entire Muon questionnaire would be an exercise in copying information from the Hgg and Hzz entries. It is preferred to simply refer to the Muon questionnaire entries for the individual analyses: [[https://twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/CMS/HIG16041muonsMoriond2017][HIG-16-041]] , [[https://twiki.cern.ch/twiki/bin/view/CMS/HIG17025muons][HIG-17-025]] .


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*<literal>4. For all the plots: add theory predictions</literal>*

A line indicating the SM prediction is added to all the plots concerning combinations of differential cross sections. The 2D coupling scans already had SM predictions.

The normalization of the SM line is set to the !YR4 !N3LO cross section for gluon fusion: 48.52 fb.

pT, for smH and ggH+xH (split):

<img alt="twoPanel_pthSpectrum.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_pthSpectrum.png" width="30%" />
<img alt="twoPanel_pth_ggH_Spectrum.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_pth_ggH_Spectrum.png" width="30%" />

nJets, pT_jet and rapidity:

<img alt="twoPanel_nJetsSpectrum.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_nJetsSpectrum.png" width="30%" />
<img alt="twoPanel_ptjetSpectrum.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_ptjetSpectrum.png" width="30%" />
<img alt="twoPanel_rapiditySpectrum.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_rapiditySpectrum.png" width="30%" />

The uncertainty denoted by the vertical line corresponds to the full uncertainty (statistical and systematic), whereas the filled area denotes only the statistical uncertainty (the total uncertainty is dominated by the statistical uncertainty; see Question 5).


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*<literal>5. For all the plots: add systematic error uncertainty in the plots</literal>*

The uncertainties previously calculated concerned the combined uncertainty of statistical and systematic uncertainties. In order to calculate only the statistical uncertainties, the scans were repeated freezing all the nuisance parameters to their best-fit-value. The uncertainties split into stat and stat+syst are shown in the following plots, for the combined spectra.

<img alt="twoPanel_pthSpectrum_statsyst_color.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_pthSpectrum_statsyst_color.png" width="30%" />
<img alt="twoPanel_pth_ggH_Spectrum_statsyst_color.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_pth_ggH_Spectrum_statsyst_color.png" width="30%" />

<img alt="twoPanel_nJetsSpectrum_statsyst_color.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_nJetsSpectrum_statsyst_color.png" width="30%" />
<img alt="twoPanel_ptjetSpectrum_statsyst_color.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_ptjetSpectrum_statsyst_color.png" width="30%" />
<img alt="twoPanel_rapiditySpectrum_statsyst_color.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/twoPanel_rapiditySpectrum_statsyst_color.png" width="30%" />

The full set of scans from which the uncertainties were obtained is here: http://tklijnsm.web.cern.ch/tklijnsm/differentials2017/ptCombination_v3/preapp/statsyst_scans/ . In the majority of these scans, the systematic uncertainty is very small with respect to the statistical uncertainty.

The numerical values are also given in the tables in Question 6.


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*<literal>6. Include tables with numerical values of cross-sections & uncertainties in the paper draft, including separation of systematics and statistics. Correlation matrix to be released as well (</literal>*

For all the observables, tables of their mu (ratio to SM) and cross section where computed. The resulting tables are displayed below, and will also be included in the paper draft.

The tables contain uncertainties in terms of *ratio to SM* (mu).

| pth_smH | 0-15 | 15-30 | 30-45 | 45-85 | 85-125 | 125-200 | 200-350 | 350-10000 |
| hgg (stat.) |    0.37   |   0.34   |   0.36   |   0.31   |   0.36   |   0.31   |   0.41   |   0.75   |
| hgg (syst.) |    0.08   |   0.13   |   0.09   |   0.07   |   0.08   |   0.06   |   0.13   |   0.08   |
| hzz (stat.) |    0.35   |   0.40   |   0.25   ||   0.39   ||   0.29   ||
| hzz (syst.) |    0.07   |   0.10   |   0.09   ||   0.07   ||   0.15   ||
| combination (stat.) |    0.26   |   0.26   |   0.33   |   0.26   |   0.29   |   0.30   |   0.39   |   0.61   |
| combination (syst.) |    0.06   |   0.10   |   0.08   |   0.06   |   0.05   |   0.05   |   0.10   |   0.13   |

| pth_ggH | 0-15 | 15-30 | 30-45 | 45-85 | 85-125 | 125-200 | 200-350 | 350-10000 |
| hgg (stat.) |    0.37   |   0.35   |   0.40   |   0.37   |   0.50   |   0.48   |   0.69   |   1.31   |
| hgg (syst.) |    0.09   |   0.14   |   0.09   |   0.09   |   0.10   |   0.09   |   0.23   |   0.26   |
| hzz (stat.) |    0.36   |   0.41   |   0.28   ||   0.59   ||   0.68   ||
| hzz (syst.) |    0.16   |   0.21   |   0.16   ||   0.16   ||   0.06   ||
| combination (stat.) |    0.27   |   0.27   |   0.35   |   0.29   |   0.35   |   0.42   |   0.66   |   1.23   |
| combination (syst.) |    0.09   |   0.13   |   0.13   |   0.16   |   0.22   |   0.21   |   0.18   |   0.35   |

| ptjet | 0-30 | 30-55 | 55-95 | 95-120 | 120-200 | 200-10000 |
| hgg (stat.) |    0.21   |   0.53   |   0.58   |   1.34   |   0.67   |   1.00   |
| hgg (syst.) |    0.11   |   0.09   |   0.15   |   0.19   |   0.08   |   0.18   |
| hzz (stat.) |    0.22   |   0.59   |   0.58   |   0.44   |||
| hzz (syst.) |    0.10   |   0.10   |   0.07   |   0.05   |||
| combination (stat.) |    0.16   |   0.36   |   0.45   |   1.19   |   0.63   |   0.97   |
| combination (syst.) |    0.08   |   0.07   |   0.09   |   0.13   |   0.08   |   0.19   |

| njets | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-10000 |
| hgg (stat.) |    0.20   |   0.35   |   0.65   |   1.88   |   1.40   |
| hgg (syst.) |    0.12   |   0.08   |   0.11   |   0.09   |   0.24   |
| hzz (stat.) |    0.22   |   0.32   |   0.80   |   1.22   ||
| hzz (syst.) |    0.10   |   0.06   |   0.10   |   0.17   ||
| combination (stat.) |    0.16   |   0.25   |   0.43   |   1.42   |   1.33   |
| combination (syst.) |    0.08   |   0.05   |   0.08   |   0.18   |   0.19   |

| rapidity | 0-0.1 | 0.1-0.3 | 0.3-0.6 | 0.6-0.9 | 0.9-1.2 | 1.2-2.5 |
| hgg (stat.) |    0.38   |   0.40   |   0.29   |   0.34   |   0.45   |   0.38   |
| hgg (syst.) |    0.13   |   0.09   |   0.10   |   0.08   |   0.10   |   0.08   |
| hzz (stat.) |    0.54   |   0.56   |   0.38   |   0.47   |   0.37   |   0.31   |
| hzz (syst.) |    0.09   |   0.10   |   0.09   |   0.11   |   0.06   |   0.07   |
| combination (stat.) |    0.31   |   0.33   |   0.23   |   0.26   |   0.29   |   0.26   |
| combination (syst.) |    0.10   |   0.08   |   0.07   |   0.08   |   0.06   |   0.05   |


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*<literal>7. Total XS: separate also here syst stat</literal>*

A separate scan was performed in which all the systematic nuisances were frozen to the best fit, yielding the only statistical uncertainties. This shape is shown in grey.

<img alt="totalXSscanNew.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/totalXSscanNew.png" width="50%" />


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*<literal>8. Cross checks for the BR: BR vs pt, BR using the Njets categorisation</literal>*

I performed this cross check for all the observables we are doing. The results agree within uncertainties, and are shown below.

<img alt="BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_0.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_0.png" width="25%" />
<img alt="BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_1.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_1.png" width="25%" />
<img alt="BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_2.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_2.png" width="25%" />

<img alt="BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_3.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_3.png" width="25%" />
<img alt="BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20.png" width="25%" />

Scanning the ratio of BRs per pT bin would only have been possible if both hgg and hzz had identical binning schemes. Currently however, floating a BR-modifier per hgg-bin and hzz-bin yields too many degrees of freedom (8 modifiers for hgg + 8 modifiers for hzz > 8 reco bins hgg + 5 reco bins hzz).


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*<literal>9. For kb vs kc, kt vs kg, kb vs kt: add also the 95% CL from the 1D scan</literal>*

A 2-sigma line is included in the plot; note that 2-sigma (95.45%) differs slightly from the asked 95% CL. Also the numerical result is printed in a more clear way.

Observed:

<img alt="oneKappaScan_kappab_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappab.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/oneKappaScan_kappab_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappab.png" width="25%" />
<img alt="oneKappaScan_kappac_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappac.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/oneKappaScan_kappac_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappac.png" width="25%" />

Expected:

<img alt="oneKappaScan_kappab_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappab_asimov.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/oneKappaScan_kappab_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappab_asimov.png" width="25%" />
<img alt="oneKappaScan_kappac_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappac_asimov.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/oneKappaScan_kappac_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappac_asimov.png" width="25%" />


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*<literal>10. Add additional deformation of the kc,kb spectrum going in other directions (closer to 0,0)</literal>*

I added a point at (0,0). The contribution that is left is due to the kappa_top term, that is fixed to SM.

<img alt="comparison_Yukawa_pointsOnContourOnePlot.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/comparison_Yukawa_pointsOnContourOnePlot.png" width="50%" />


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*<literal>11. For supplementary material: when modifying the BR for kb,kc add a third fit floating also the overall normalisation</literal>*

In black is shown the 'nominal' result: Branching ratios fixed to their SM value, and the normalization fixed to the ggH cross section calculated in Yellow Report 4. The result obtained by making the branching ratios depend on the couplings is shown in blue; the result is more constrained due to the constraining effect of the total width. In red a further modification is applied, where also the overall normalization is floated in the fit. As expected, this is less constraining than keeping it fixed.

The results shown here were computed using the Asimov (expected) dataset.

<img alt="contours_BRcouplingDependency_Yukawa.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/contours_BRcouplingDependency_Yukawa.png" width="50%" />


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*<literal>12. kt vs kg: check the constraints that we get using only shape, floating also the overall normalisation</literal>*

When the constraint from the normalization is dropped, the shape depends only on the ratio of kappa_t and kappa_g (this is a mathematical consequence of the parametrization). The plot below confirms this expectation: Different levels of exclusion are only obtained by varying the ratio.

<img alt="contours_profiledTotalXS_profiledTotalXS_Top.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/contours_profiledTotalXS_profiledTotalXS_Top.png" width="50%" />


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*<literal>13. Possible for supplementary material: include also the variation of the BR also for kt,kg and check also here the constraints only from shape floating the overall normalisation</literal>*

In black is shown the 'nominal' result: Branching ratios fixed to their SM value, and the normalization fixed to the ggH cross section calculated in Yellow Report 4. The result obtained by making the branching ratios depend on the couplings is shown in blue; the result is more constrained due to the gamma-gamma loop effects (the gamma-gamma width goes to zero around kappa_t ~ 2.0).

In red a further modification is applied, where also the overall normalization is floated in the fit. As expected, this is less constraining than keeping it fixed. The discrimination due to the shape is mostly on kappa_t, whereas on kappa_g hardly a clear constraint can be made.

The results shown here were computed using the Asimov (expected) dataset.

<img alt="contours_BRcouplingDependency.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/contours_BRcouplingDependency.png" width="50%" />


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*<literal>14. Find a new name for kg which has a different parametrisation wrt couplings combination</literal>*

I would suggest to use "c_g" here, which is what the authors behind the kappa_t/c_g originally called it. Once agreed upon I will change all plotting labels.


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*<literal>15. Most notably: boosted ggH(bb) needs to be added in the pt spectrum and in the kt,kg interpretation. Preliminary list of discussed checks: compare the theory predictions currently used for boosted ggHbb vs HRES, ggHbb team should provide the datacards as soon as possible, consider to add an additional  theory uncertainty for the mtop treatment above 350 GeV</literal>*

As the hgg cards are not yet migrated to the new binning scheme, I performed a combination of hzz and hbb:

<img alt="contours_Top_newBins.png" src="%ATTACHURLPATH%/contours_Top_newBins.png" width="50%" />

The result is comparable to that of hgg alone. As soon as the new hgg datacards are in, I will restart all the relevant scans. The results shown here were computed using the Asimov (expected) dataset.

So far, no additional theory uncertainty for the mtop treatment above 350 !GeV has been included.

Attachments

Topic attachments
I	Attachment	History	Action	Size	Date	Who
png	BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20.png	r1	manage	24.9 K	2018-02-07 - 23:05	ThomasKlijnsma
png	BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_0.png	r1	manage	23.5 K	2018-02-07 - 23:05	ThomasKlijnsma
png	BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_1.png	r1	manage	25.2 K	2018-02-07 - 23:05	ThomasKlijnsma
png	BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_2.png	r1	manage	25.1 K	2018-02-07 - 23:05	ThomasKlijnsma
png	BRscan_Scan_ratioOfBRs_Dec20_3.png	r1	manage	25.0 K	2018-02-07 - 23:05	ThomasKlijnsma
png	comparison_Yukawa_pointsOnContourOnePlot.png	r1	manage	29.8 K	2018-02-07 - 22:32	ThomasKlijnsma
png	contours_BRcouplingDependency.png	r2 r1	manage	27.9 K	2018-02-08 - 10:10	ThomasKlijnsma
png	contours_BRcouplingDependency_Yukawa.png	r1	manage	24.9 K	2018-02-08 - 10:11	ThomasKlijnsma
png	contours_Top_newBins.png	r1	manage	27.6 K	2018-02-07 - 22:41	ThomasKlijnsma
png	contours_profiledTotalXS_profiledTotalXS_Top.png	r1	manage	29.9 K	2018-02-08 - 14:15	ThomasKlijnsma
png	oneKappaScan_kappab_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappab.png	r1	manage	19.8 K	2018-02-07 - 16:52	ThomasKlijnsma
png	oneKappaScan_kappab_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappab_asimov.png	r1	manage	17.0 K	2018-02-07 - 16:52	ThomasKlijnsma
png	oneKappaScan_kappac_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappac.png	r1	manage	20.7 K	2018-02-07 - 16:52	ThomasKlijnsma
png	oneKappaScan_kappac_Scan_Yukawa_Feb07_combined_oneKappa_kappac_asimov.png	r1	manage	17.8 K	2018-02-07 - 16:52	ThomasKlijnsma
png	parabolas_smH_PTH_combination.png	r1	manage	36.7 K	2018-02-07 - 11:55	ThomasKlijnsma
png	parabolas_smH_PTH_combination_statonly.png	r1	manage	36.8 K	2018-02-07 - 11:55	ThomasKlijnsma
png	test.png	r1	manage	41.3 K	2018-02-07 - 11:36	ThomasKlijnsma
png	totalXSscanNew.png	r1	manage	25.2 K	2018-02-09 - 10:54	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_nJetsSpectrum.png	r3 r2 r1	manage	34.4 K	2018-02-08 - 17:42	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_nJetsSpectrum_statsyst.png	r2 r1	manage	31.8 K	2018-02-09 - 11:11	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_nJetsSpectrum_statsyst_color.png	r1	manage	31.8 K	2018-02-09 - 11:18	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_pthSpectrum.png	r3 r2 r1	manage	36.6 K	2018-02-08 - 17:42	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_pthSpectrum_statsyst.png	r2 r1	manage	34.4 K	2018-02-09 - 11:11	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_pthSpectrum_statsyst_color.png	r1	manage	34.4 K	2018-02-09 - 11:18	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_pth_ggH_Spectrum.png	r3 r2 r1	manage	38.6 K	2018-02-08 - 17:42	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_pth_ggH_Spectrum_statsyst.png	r2 r1	manage	36.3 K	2018-02-09 - 11:11	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_pth_ggH_Spectrum_statsyst_color.png	r1	manage	36.3 K	2018-02-09 - 11:18	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_ptjetSpectrum.png	r3 r2 r1	manage	35.2 K	2018-02-08 - 17:42	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_ptjetSpectrum_statsyst.png	r2 r1	manage	32.5 K	2018-02-09 - 11:11	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_ptjetSpectrum_statsyst_color.png	r1	manage	32.5 K	2018-02-09 - 11:18	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_rapiditySpectrum.png	r3 r2 r1	manage	29.2 K	2018-02-08 - 17:42	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_rapiditySpectrum_statsyst.png	r2 r1	manage	28.9 K	2018-02-09 - 11:11	ThomasKlijnsma
png	twoPanel_rapiditySpectrum_statsyst_color.png	r1	manage	28.9 K	2018-02-09 - 11:18	ThomasKlijnsma

Topic revision: r13 - 2018-02-09 - ThomasKlijnsma

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