SystematicsInAdvancedMtMethod

Introduction

study systematics effects in the background estimation from data (somewhat MC dependent) method.

Method

Def. quadrants:
  Meff
   ^  C  |  D
   | --- + ---
   |  A  |  B
   +------------> Mt
MC dependency: take SM eff. for the 4 quadrants from MC (sum over 4 eff == 1.0).

Brief method description: Take (signal+SM) events in each quadrant from data. solve equations for SM, signal evts, signal eff. (4 eq. 4 unknowns)

For systematic studies:

  1. vary something (JES, x-sections) in the MC samples
  2. run it through the full analysis
  3. take these modified MC samples to get the 4 SM eff.
  4. run the SM estimation method with the these (slightly wrong) SM eff on the unmodified MC samples

JES

when reading the Cone4 jets, scale the jet enegy, px, py, pz, pt by a given factor. This is propagated into all directly derived variables: Meff, transverse sphericity.

In the rows saying "JET +-10% -> MET" the scaled jets are propagate into MET by exchanging the unscaled by the scaled jets in the x and y components of MET. now also the transverse mass is affected (thru missing enery x,y).

Plots:
JES +10% -> MET : leading jet pt, met effective mass, transverse mass, transverse sphericity

JES -10% -> MET : leading jet pt, met effective mass, transverse mass, transverse sphericity

Wiggle X-section

Scale up/down the x-sections of some SM constituents.

MET smearing

change missing energy x, y as follows:
met_x += Fraction * Rndm.Gaus(0.0, 0.53 * sqrt(SumEt))
met_y += Fraction * Rndm.Gaus(0.0, 0.53 * sqrt(SumEt))
met = sqrt( met_x**2 + met_y**2 )
the Fraction is given below in percent. this is propagated into the variables: Meff, transverse (W) mass.

Results

Signal = SU1, Meff cut: 1200 GeV

From MC Truth:
  SM:   tot= 2276.90, A= 1980.73, B=  223.26, C=   61.94, D=   10.98
  SIG:  tot=  439.93, A=   97.12, B=  154.15, C=   70.96, D=  117.70
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 8.70e-01 9.81e-02 2.72e-02 4.82e-03 2282.3 +-64.3 11.0 +-0.3 19.68 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 8.52e-01 1.17e-01 2.58e-02 5.05e-03 2365.7 +-63.7 11.9 +-0.3 19.21 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -2.04% 19.35% -5.25% 4.74% 3.65% 8.57% -2.40%
MET smear. 20% 8.69e-01 9.86e-02 2.71e-02 4.85e-03 2284.2 +-64.3 11.1 +-0.3 19.64 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.05% 0.54% -0.32% 0.62% 0.08% 0.71% -0.21%
MET smear. 10% 8.70e-01 9.80e-02 2.72e-02 4.85e-03 2282.3 +-64.3 11.1 +-0.3 19.65 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.00% -0.03% 0.05% 0.62% -0.00% 0.62% -0.19%
JES + 10% 8.72e-01 9.61e-02 2.74e-02 4.67e-03 2274.2 +-64.3 10.6 +-0.3 19.89 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.22% -2.01% 0.65% -3.04% -0.35% -3.38% 1.02%
JES - 10% 8.67e-01 1.03e-01 2.52e-02 4.33e-03 2294.5 +-64.1 9.9 +-0.3 20.29 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.33% 5.47% -7.23% -10.26% 0.53% -9.78% 3.08%
JES + 10% ->MET 8.70e-01 9.54e-02 3.00e-02 4.86e-03 2289.4 +-63.9 11.1 +-0.3 19.62 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.03% -2.66% 10.34% 0.87% 0.31% 1.19% -0.34%
JES - 10% ->MET 8.64e-01 1.08e-01 2.39e-02 3.75e-03 2310.3 +-64.0 8.7 +-0.2 21.08 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.69% 10.60% -12.05% -22.20% 1.23% -21.25% 7.07%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 8.98e-01 7.94e-02 2.10e-02 1.51e-03 2152.4 +-65.0 3.3 +-0.1 26.12 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 3.25% -19.06% -22.99% -68.63% -5.69% -70.41% 32.71%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 8.70e-01 9.69e-02 2.81e-02 4.89e-03 2283.4 +-64.2 11.2 +-0.3 19.60 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.01% -1.13% 3.37% 1.46% 0.05% 1.51% -0.45%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 8.70e-01 9.91e-02 2.63e-02 4.76e-03 2281.3 +-64.3 10.8 +-0.3 19.77 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.01% 1.06% -3.16% -1.37% -0.04% -1.41% 0.42%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 8.69e-01 9.91e-02 2.73e-02 4.87e-03 2287.5 +-64.2 11.1 +-0.3 19.61 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.13% 1.05% 0.20% 1.00% 0.23% 1.23% -0.36%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 8.71e-01 9.70e-02 2.71e-02 4.77e-03 2277.1 +-64.3 10.9 +-0.3 19.76 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.13% -1.04% -0.20% -0.99% -0.23% -1.21% 0.36%

Signal = SU2, Meff cut: 1200 GeV

From MC Truth:
  SM:   tot= 2276.90, A= 1980.73, B=  223.26, C=   61.94, D=   10.98
  SIG:  tot=   84.37, A=   23.55, B=   35.68, C=    9.97, D=   15.17
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 8.70e-01 9.81e-02 2.72e-02 4.82e-03 2277.0 +-67.7 11.0 +-0.3 3.85 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 8.52e-01 1.17e-01 2.58e-02 5.05e-03 2368.4 +-60.3 12.0 +-0.3 3.52 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -2.04% 19.35% -5.25% 4.74% 4.01% 8.95% -8.61%
MET smear. 20% 8.69e-01 9.86e-02 2.71e-02 4.85e-03 2278.8 +-67.4 11.1 +-0.3 3.83 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.05% 0.54% -0.32% 0.62% 0.08% 0.70% -0.70%
MET smear. 10% 8.70e-01 9.80e-02 2.72e-02 4.85e-03 2277.0 +-67.8 11.0 +-0.3 3.83 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.00% -0.03% 0.05% 0.62% -0.00% 0.62% -0.63%
JES + 10% 8.72e-01 9.61e-02 2.74e-02 4.67e-03 2269.3 +-69.3 10.6 +-0.3 3.98 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.22% -2.01% 0.65% -3.04% -0.34% -3.36% 3.41%
JES - 10% 8.67e-01 1.03e-01 2.52e-02 4.33e-03 2289.4 +-64.8 9.9 +-0.3 4.25 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.33% 5.47% -7.23% -10.26% 0.54% -9.77% 10.32%
JES + 10% ->MET 8.70e-01 9.54e-02 3.00e-02 4.86e-03 2295.4 +-65.4 11.2 +-0.3 3.79 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.03% -2.66% 10.34% 0.87% 0.81% 1.68% -1.64%
JES - 10% ->MET 8.64e-01 1.08e-01 2.39e-02 3.75e-03 2310.9 +-62.9 8.7 +-0.2 4.75 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.69% 10.60% -12.05% -22.20% 1.49% -21.04% 23.26%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 8.98e-01 7.94e-02 2.10e-02 1.51e-03 2108.2 +-87.1 3.2 +-0.1 7.74 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 3.25% -19.06% -22.99% -68.63% -7.41% -70.95% 100.79%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 8.70e-01 9.69e-02 2.81e-02 4.89e-03 2281.2 +-67.3 11.2 +-0.3 3.79 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.01% -1.13% 3.37% 1.46% 0.18% 1.65% -1.65%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 8.70e-01 9.91e-02 2.63e-02 4.76e-03 2274.0 +-68.3 10.8 +-0.3 3.91 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.01% 1.06% -3.16% -1.37% -0.13% -1.50% 1.51%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 8.69e-01 9.91e-02 2.73e-02 4.87e-03 2282.6 +-66.4 11.1 +-0.3 3.81 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.13% 1.05% 0.20% 1.00% 0.25% 1.25% -1.23%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 8.71e-01 9.70e-02 2.71e-02 4.77e-03 2271.4 +-69.0 10.8 +-0.3 3.90 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.13% -1.04% -0.20% -0.99% -0.25% -1.24% 1.23%

Signal = SU3, Meff cut: 800 GeV

From MC Truth:
  SM:   tot= 2276.90, A= 1656.60, B=  171.05, C=  386.06, D=   63.18
  SIG:  tot=  812.94, A=   74.52, B=   94.49, C=  260.41, D=  383.52
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 7.28e-01 7.51e-02 1.70e-01 2.77e-02 2293.1 +-68.0 63.6 +-1.9 29.64 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 7.15e-01 9.25e-02 1.63e-01 2.96e-02 2378.4 +-68.0 70.4 +-2.0 28.46 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -1.77% 23.09% -3.73% 6.70% 3.72% 10.67% -3.98%
MET smear. 20% 7.29e-01 7.58e-02 1.68e-01 2.76e-02 2289.9 +-67.9 63.3 +-1.9 29.70 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.14% 0.88% -0.91% -0.38% -0.14% -0.52% 0.21%
MET smear. 10% 7.28e-01 7.52e-02 1.69e-01 2.77e-02 2293.0 +-68.0 63.4 +-1.9 29.68 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.01% 0.13% -0.05% -0.33% -0.00% -0.33% 0.14%
JES + 10% 7.26e-01 7.42e-02 1.73e-01 2.66e-02 2299.6 +-67.8 61.1 +-1.8 30.16 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.19% -1.23% 2.07% -4.30% 0.29% -4.02% 1.75%
JES - 10% 7.30e-01 7.98e-02 1.63e-01 2.80e-02 2291.8 +-67.9 64.1 +-1.9 29.55 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.27% 6.19% -4.04% 0.79% -0.06% 0.73% -0.31%
JES + 10% ->MET 7.13e-01 7.34e-02 1.86e-01 2.69e-02 2356.7 +-67.9 63.4 +-1.8 29.76 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -1.96% -2.27% 9.91% -3.12% 2.77% -0.43% 0.41%
JES - 10% ->MET 7.33e-01 8.28e-02 1.55e-01 2.94e-02 2280.2 +-68.2 67.1 +-2.0 28.96 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.77% 10.19% -8.79% 6.00% -0.56% 5.40% -2.29%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 7.68e-01 5.39e-02 1.51e-01 2.70e-02 2084.4 +-67.6 56.3 +-1.8 30.89 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 5.56% -28.32% -10.90% -2.61% -9.10% -11.48% 4.22%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 7.26e-01 7.41e-02 1.72e-01 2.78e-02 2298.2 +-68.0 63.9 +-1.9 29.60 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.21% -1.43% 1.51% 0.13% 0.22% 0.35% -0.13%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 7.29e-01 7.61e-02 1.67e-01 2.77e-02 2288.4 +-67.9 63.4 +-1.9 29.67 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.20% 1.34% -1.41% -0.12% -0.20% -0.32% 0.12%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 7.26e-01 7.59e-02 1.70e-01 2.81e-02 2298.9 +-68.0 64.5 +-1.9 29.48 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.16% 1.02% 0.04% 1.11% 0.25% 1.36% -0.55%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 7.29e-01 7.44e-02 1.69e-01 2.74e-02 2287.3 +-67.9 62.8 +-1.9 29.80 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.16% -1.01% -0.04% -1.09% -0.25% -1.34% 0.55%

Signal = SU4, Meff cut: 500 GeV

From MC Truth:
  SM:   tot= 2276.90, A=  213.68, B=   13.93, C= 1828.98, D=  220.30
  SIG:  tot= 7036.52, A=  202.28, B=   86.69, C= 3494.52, D= 3253.02
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 9.38e-02 6.12e-03 8.03e-01 9.68e-02 3838.8 +-305.7 371.4 +-29.6 52.63 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 9.09e-02 8.31e-03 7.87e-01 1.14e-01 4054.6 +-312.4 461.3 +-35.5 51.11 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -3.14% 35.86% -2.02% 17.58% 5.62% 24.19% -2.90%
MET smear. 20% 9.41e-02 6.08e-03 8.02e-01 9.73e-02 3819.8 +-304.9 371.8 +-29.7 52.63 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.32% -0.59% -0.11% 0.61% -0.50% 0.11% -0.01%
MET smear. 10% 9.35e-02 6.06e-03 8.04e-01 9.68e-02 3857.2 +-307.0 373.5 +-29.7 52.60 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.40% -0.98% 0.05% 0.07% 0.48% 0.55% -0.07%
JES + 10% 8.81e-02 6.11e-03 8.11e-01 9.46e-02 4188.4 +-324.9 396.4 +-30.7 52.21 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -6.12% -0.07% 0.98% -2.19% 9.11% 6.72% -0.80%
JES - 10% 9.44e-02 6.93e-03 7.98e-01 1.01e-01 3830.7 +-302.9 386.2 +-30.5 52.38 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.58% 13.32% -0.67% 4.19% -0.21% 3.97% -0.48%
JES + 10% ->MET 8.52e-02 6.03e-03 8.15e-01 9.43e-02 4385.0 +-335.8 413.4 +-31.7 51.92 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -9.24% -1.49% 1.40% -2.56% 14.23% 11.30% -1.35%
JES - 10% ->MET 1.04e-01 7.25e-03 7.84e-01 1.05e-01 3372.6 +-275.9 353.9 +-29.0 52.93 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 10.75% 18.54% -2.42% 8.46% -12.14% -4.71% 0.56%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 9.70e-02 5.92e-03 8.22e-01 7.50e-02 3712.3 +-294.1 278.3 +-22.0 54.21 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 3.35% -3.20% 2.35% -22.53% -3.29% -25.09% 3.00%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 9.33e-02 6.01e-03 8.05e-01 9.58e-02 3866.7 +-307.6 370.5 +-29.5 52.65 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.57% -1.75% 0.20% -0.96% 0.73% -0.24% 0.03%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 9.43e-02 6.22e-03 8.02e-01 9.76e-02 3813.2 +-304.0 372.3 +-29.7 52.62 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.53% 1.64% -0.18% 0.90% -0.67% 0.23% -0.03%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 9.37e-02 6.17e-03 8.02e-01 9.78e-02 3848.4 +-306.3 376.3 +-29.9 52.55 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.19% 0.87% -0.11% 1.06% 0.25% 1.31% -0.16%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 9.40e-02 6.07e-03 8.04e-01 9.57e-02 3829.3 +-305.1 366.6 +-29.2 52.71 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.19% -0.86% 0.11% -1.04% -0.25% -1.29% 0.15%

Signal = SU6, Meff cut: 1200 GeV

From MC Truth:
  SM:   tot= 2276.90, A= 1980.73, B=  223.26, C=   61.94, D=   10.98
  SIG:  tot=  261.65, A=   53.51, B=   89.58, C=   39.12, D=   79.45
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 8.70e-01 9.81e-02 2.72e-02 4.82e-03 2288.7 +-59.7 11.0 +-0.3 14.75 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 8.52e-01 1.17e-01 2.58e-02 5.05e-03 2365.6 +-59.1 11.9 +-0.3 14.33 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -2.04% 19.35% -5.25% 4.74% 3.36% 8.26% -2.83%
MET smear. 20% 8.69e-01 9.86e-02 2.71e-02 4.85e-03 2290.5 +-59.7 11.1 +-0.3 14.71 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.05% 0.54% -0.32% 0.62% 0.08% 0.70% -0.25%
MET smear. 10% 8.70e-01 9.80e-02 2.72e-02 4.85e-03 2288.8 +-59.7 11.1 +-0.3 14.72 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.00% -0.03% 0.05% 0.62% 0.00% 0.62% -0.23%
JES + 10% 8.72e-01 9.61e-02 2.74e-02 4.67e-03 2281.2 +-59.8 10.7 +-0.3 14.93 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.22% -2.01% 0.65% -3.04% -0.33% -3.35% 1.22%
JES - 10% 8.67e-01 1.03e-01 2.52e-02 4.33e-03 2300.0 +-59.7 10.0 +-0.3 15.30 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.33% 5.47% -7.23% -10.26% 0.49% -9.81% 3.71%
JES + 10% ->MET 8.70e-01 9.54e-02 3.00e-02 4.86e-03 2295.3 +-59.3 11.2 +-0.3 14.69 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.03% -2.66% 10.34% 0.87% 0.29% 1.16% -0.40%
JES - 10% ->MET 8.64e-01 1.08e-01 2.39e-02 3.75e-03 2314.8 +-59.6 8.7 +-0.2 16.00 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.69% 10.60% -12.05% -22.20% 1.14% -21.31% 8.49%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 8.98e-01 7.94e-02 2.10e-02 1.51e-03 2164.5 +-61.4 3.3 +-0.1 20.50 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 3.25% -19.06% -22.99% -68.63% -5.43% -70.33% 38.96%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 8.70e-01 9.69e-02 2.81e-02 4.89e-03 2289.8 +-59.6 11.2 +-0.3 14.67 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.01% -1.13% 3.37% 1.46% 0.04% 1.51% -0.54%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 8.70e-01 9.91e-02 2.63e-02 4.76e-03 2287.9 +-59.9 10.9 +-0.3 14.83 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.01% 1.06% -3.16% -1.37% -0.03% -1.40% 0.51%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 8.69e-01 9.91e-02 2.73e-02 4.87e-03 2293.5 +-59.7 11.2 +-0.3 14.69 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.13% 1.05% 0.20% 1.00% 0.21% 1.21% -0.43%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 8.71e-01 9.70e-02 2.71e-02 4.77e-03 2284.0 +-59.8 10.9 +-0.3 14.81 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.13% -1.04% -0.20% -0.99% -0.21% -1.20% 0.43%


Major updates:
-- TillEifert - 22 Aug 2008
Edit | Attach | Watch | Print version | History: r2 < r1 | Backlinks | Raw View | WYSIWYG | More topic actions
Topic revision: r2 - 2008-08-25 - TillEifert
 
    • Cern Search Icon Cern Search
    • TWiki Search Icon TWiki Search
    • Google Search Icon Google Search

    Main All webs login

This site is powered by the TWiki collaboration platform Powered by PerlCopyright & 2008-2022 by the contributing authors. All material on this collaboration platform is the property of the contributing authors.
or Ideas, requests, problems regarding TWiki? use Discourse or Send feedback