# Introduction

study systematics effects in the background estimation from data (somewhat MC dependent) method.

# Method

```Def. quadrants:
Meff
^  C  |  D
| --- + ---
|  A  |  B
+------------> Mt
```
MC dependency: take SM eff. for the 4 quadrants from MC (sum over 4 eff == 1.0).

Brief method description: Take (signal+SM) events in each quadrant from data. solve equations for SM, signal evts, signal eff. (4 eq. 4 unknowns)

For systematic studies:

1. vary something (JES, x-sections) in the MC samples
2. run it through the full analysis
3. take these modified MC samples to get the 4 SM eff.
4. run the SM estimation method with the these (slightly wrong) SM eff on the unmodified MC samples

## JES

when reading the Cone4 jets, scale the jet enegy, px, py, pz, pt by a given factor. This is propagated into all directly derived variables: Meff, transverse sphericity.

In the rows saying "JET +-10% -> MET" the scaled jets are propagate into MET by exchanging the unscaled by the scaled jets in the x and y components of MET. now also the transverse mass is affected (thru missing enery x,y).

Plots:
JES +10% -> MET : leading jet pt, met effective mass, transverse mass, transverse sphericity

JES -10% -> MET : leading jet pt, met effective mass, transverse mass, transverse sphericity

## Wiggle X-section

Scale up/down the x-sections of some SM constituents.

## MET smearing

change missing energy x, y as follows:
```met_x += Fraction * Rndm.Gaus(0.0, 0.53 * sqrt(SumEt))
met_y += Fraction * Rndm.Gaus(0.0, 0.53 * sqrt(SumEt))
met = sqrt( met_x**2 + met_y**2 )
```
the Fraction is given below in percent. this is propagated into the variables: Meff, transverse (W) mass.

# Results

## Signal = SU1, Meff cut: 1200 GeV

```From MC Truth:
SM:   tot= 2276.90, A= 1980.73, B=  223.26, C=   61.94, D=   10.98
SIG:  tot=  439.93, A=   97.12, B=  154.15, C=   70.96, D=  117.70
```
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 8.70e-01 9.81e-02 2.72e-02 4.82e-03 2282.3 +-64.3 11.0 +-0.3 19.68 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 8.52e-01 1.17e-01 2.58e-02 5.05e-03 2365.7 +-63.7 11.9 +-0.3 19.21 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -2.04% 19.35% -5.25% 4.74% 3.65% 8.57% -2.40%
MET smear. 20% 8.69e-01 9.86e-02 2.71e-02 4.85e-03 2284.2 +-64.3 11.1 +-0.3 19.64 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.05% 0.54% -0.32% 0.62% 0.08% 0.71% -0.21%
MET smear. 10% 8.70e-01 9.80e-02 2.72e-02 4.85e-03 2282.3 +-64.3 11.1 +-0.3 19.65 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.00% -0.03% 0.05% 0.62% -0.00% 0.62% -0.19%
JES + 10% 8.72e-01 9.61e-02 2.74e-02 4.67e-03 2274.2 +-64.3 10.6 +-0.3 19.89 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.22% -2.01% 0.65% -3.04% -0.35% -3.38% 1.02%
JES - 10% 8.67e-01 1.03e-01 2.52e-02 4.33e-03 2294.5 +-64.1 9.9 +-0.3 20.29 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.33% 5.47% -7.23% -10.26% 0.53% -9.78% 3.08%
JES + 10% ->MET 8.70e-01 9.54e-02 3.00e-02 4.86e-03 2289.4 +-63.9 11.1 +-0.3 19.62 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.03% -2.66% 10.34% 0.87% 0.31% 1.19% -0.34%
JES - 10% ->MET 8.64e-01 1.08e-01 2.39e-02 3.75e-03 2310.3 +-64.0 8.7 +-0.2 21.08 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.69% 10.60% -12.05% -22.20% 1.23% -21.25% 7.07%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 8.98e-01 7.94e-02 2.10e-02 1.51e-03 2152.4 +-65.0 3.3 +-0.1 26.12 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 3.25% -19.06% -22.99% -68.63% -5.69% -70.41% 32.71%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 8.70e-01 9.69e-02 2.81e-02 4.89e-03 2283.4 +-64.2 11.2 +-0.3 19.60 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.01% -1.13% 3.37% 1.46% 0.05% 1.51% -0.45%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 8.70e-01 9.91e-02 2.63e-02 4.76e-03 2281.3 +-64.3 10.8 +-0.3 19.77 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.01% 1.06% -3.16% -1.37% -0.04% -1.41% 0.42%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 8.69e-01 9.91e-02 2.73e-02 4.87e-03 2287.5 +-64.2 11.1 +-0.3 19.61 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.13% 1.05% 0.20% 1.00% 0.23% 1.23% -0.36%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 8.71e-01 9.70e-02 2.71e-02 4.77e-03 2277.1 +-64.3 10.9 +-0.3 19.76 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.13% -1.04% -0.20% -0.99% -0.23% -1.21% 0.36%

## Signal = SU2, Meff cut: 1200 GeV

```From MC Truth:
SM:   tot= 2276.90, A= 1980.73, B=  223.26, C=   61.94, D=   10.98
SIG:  tot=   84.37, A=   23.55, B=   35.68, C=    9.97, D=   15.17
```
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 8.70e-01 9.81e-02 2.72e-02 4.82e-03 2277.0 +-67.7 11.0 +-0.3 3.85 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 8.52e-01 1.17e-01 2.58e-02 5.05e-03 2368.4 +-60.3 12.0 +-0.3 3.52 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -2.04% 19.35% -5.25% 4.74% 4.01% 8.95% -8.61%
MET smear. 20% 8.69e-01 9.86e-02 2.71e-02 4.85e-03 2278.8 +-67.4 11.1 +-0.3 3.83 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.05% 0.54% -0.32% 0.62% 0.08% 0.70% -0.70%
MET smear. 10% 8.70e-01 9.80e-02 2.72e-02 4.85e-03 2277.0 +-67.8 11.0 +-0.3 3.83 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.00% -0.03% 0.05% 0.62% -0.00% 0.62% -0.63%
JES + 10% 8.72e-01 9.61e-02 2.74e-02 4.67e-03 2269.3 +-69.3 10.6 +-0.3 3.98 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.22% -2.01% 0.65% -3.04% -0.34% -3.36% 3.41%
JES - 10% 8.67e-01 1.03e-01 2.52e-02 4.33e-03 2289.4 +-64.8 9.9 +-0.3 4.25 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.33% 5.47% -7.23% -10.26% 0.54% -9.77% 10.32%
JES + 10% ->MET 8.70e-01 9.54e-02 3.00e-02 4.86e-03 2295.4 +-65.4 11.2 +-0.3 3.79 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.03% -2.66% 10.34% 0.87% 0.81% 1.68% -1.64%
JES - 10% ->MET 8.64e-01 1.08e-01 2.39e-02 3.75e-03 2310.9 +-62.9 8.7 +-0.2 4.75 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.69% 10.60% -12.05% -22.20% 1.49% -21.04% 23.26%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 8.98e-01 7.94e-02 2.10e-02 1.51e-03 2108.2 +-87.1 3.2 +-0.1 7.74 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 3.25% -19.06% -22.99% -68.63% -7.41% -70.95% 100.79%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 8.70e-01 9.69e-02 2.81e-02 4.89e-03 2281.2 +-67.3 11.2 +-0.3 3.79 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.01% -1.13% 3.37% 1.46% 0.18% 1.65% -1.65%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 8.70e-01 9.91e-02 2.63e-02 4.76e-03 2274.0 +-68.3 10.8 +-0.3 3.91 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.01% 1.06% -3.16% -1.37% -0.13% -1.50% 1.51%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 8.69e-01 9.91e-02 2.73e-02 4.87e-03 2282.6 +-66.4 11.1 +-0.3 3.81 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.13% 1.05% 0.20% 1.00% 0.25% 1.25% -1.23%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 8.71e-01 9.70e-02 2.71e-02 4.77e-03 2271.4 +-69.0 10.8 +-0.3 3.90 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.13% -1.04% -0.20% -0.99% -0.25% -1.24% 1.23%

## Signal = SU3, Meff cut: 800 GeV

```From MC Truth:
SM:   tot= 2276.90, A= 1656.60, B=  171.05, C=  386.06, D=   63.18
SIG:  tot=  812.94, A=   74.52, B=   94.49, C=  260.41, D=  383.52
```
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 7.28e-01 7.51e-02 1.70e-01 2.77e-02 2293.1 +-68.0 63.6 +-1.9 29.64 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 7.15e-01 9.25e-02 1.63e-01 2.96e-02 2378.4 +-68.0 70.4 +-2.0 28.46 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -1.77% 23.09% -3.73% 6.70% 3.72% 10.67% -3.98%
MET smear. 20% 7.29e-01 7.58e-02 1.68e-01 2.76e-02 2289.9 +-67.9 63.3 +-1.9 29.70 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.14% 0.88% -0.91% -0.38% -0.14% -0.52% 0.21%
MET smear. 10% 7.28e-01 7.52e-02 1.69e-01 2.77e-02 2293.0 +-68.0 63.4 +-1.9 29.68 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.01% 0.13% -0.05% -0.33% -0.00% -0.33% 0.14%
JES + 10% 7.26e-01 7.42e-02 1.73e-01 2.66e-02 2299.6 +-67.8 61.1 +-1.8 30.16 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.19% -1.23% 2.07% -4.30% 0.29% -4.02% 1.75%
JES - 10% 7.30e-01 7.98e-02 1.63e-01 2.80e-02 2291.8 +-67.9 64.1 +-1.9 29.55 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.27% 6.19% -4.04% 0.79% -0.06% 0.73% -0.31%
JES + 10% ->MET 7.13e-01 7.34e-02 1.86e-01 2.69e-02 2356.7 +-67.9 63.4 +-1.8 29.76 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -1.96% -2.27% 9.91% -3.12% 2.77% -0.43% 0.41%
JES - 10% ->MET 7.33e-01 8.28e-02 1.55e-01 2.94e-02 2280.2 +-68.2 67.1 +-2.0 28.96 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.77% 10.19% -8.79% 6.00% -0.56% 5.40% -2.29%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 7.68e-01 5.39e-02 1.51e-01 2.70e-02 2084.4 +-67.6 56.3 +-1.8 30.89 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 5.56% -28.32% -10.90% -2.61% -9.10% -11.48% 4.22%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 7.26e-01 7.41e-02 1.72e-01 2.78e-02 2298.2 +-68.0 63.9 +-1.9 29.60 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.21% -1.43% 1.51% 0.13% 0.22% 0.35% -0.13%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 7.29e-01 7.61e-02 1.67e-01 2.77e-02 2288.4 +-67.9 63.4 +-1.9 29.67 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.20% 1.34% -1.41% -0.12% -0.20% -0.32% 0.12%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 7.26e-01 7.59e-02 1.70e-01 2.81e-02 2298.9 +-68.0 64.5 +-1.9 29.48 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.16% 1.02% 0.04% 1.11% 0.25% 1.36% -0.55%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 7.29e-01 7.44e-02 1.69e-01 2.74e-02 2287.3 +-67.9 62.8 +-1.9 29.80 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.16% -1.01% -0.04% -1.09% -0.25% -1.34% 0.55%

## Signal = SU4, Meff cut: 500 GeV

```From MC Truth:
SM:   tot= 2276.90, A=  213.68, B=   13.93, C= 1828.98, D=  220.30
SIG:  tot= 7036.52, A=  202.28, B=   86.69, C= 3494.52, D= 3253.02
```
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 9.38e-02 6.12e-03 8.03e-01 9.68e-02 3838.8 +-305.7 371.4 +-29.6 52.63 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 9.09e-02 8.31e-03 7.87e-01 1.14e-01 4054.6 +-312.4 461.3 +-35.5 51.11 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -3.14% 35.86% -2.02% 17.58% 5.62% 24.19% -2.90%
MET smear. 20% 9.41e-02 6.08e-03 8.02e-01 9.73e-02 3819.8 +-304.9 371.8 +-29.7 52.63 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.32% -0.59% -0.11% 0.61% -0.50% 0.11% -0.01%
MET smear. 10% 9.35e-02 6.06e-03 8.04e-01 9.68e-02 3857.2 +-307.0 373.5 +-29.7 52.60 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.40% -0.98% 0.05% 0.07% 0.48% 0.55% -0.07%
JES + 10% 8.81e-02 6.11e-03 8.11e-01 9.46e-02 4188.4 +-324.9 396.4 +-30.7 52.21 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -6.12% -0.07% 0.98% -2.19% 9.11% 6.72% -0.80%
JES - 10% 9.44e-02 6.93e-03 7.98e-01 1.01e-01 3830.7 +-302.9 386.2 +-30.5 52.38 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.58% 13.32% -0.67% 4.19% -0.21% 3.97% -0.48%
JES + 10% ->MET 8.52e-02 6.03e-03 8.15e-01 9.43e-02 4385.0 +-335.8 413.4 +-31.7 51.92 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -9.24% -1.49% 1.40% -2.56% 14.23% 11.30% -1.35%
JES - 10% ->MET 1.04e-01 7.25e-03 7.84e-01 1.05e-01 3372.6 +-275.9 353.9 +-29.0 52.93 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 10.75% 18.54% -2.42% 8.46% -12.14% -4.71% 0.56%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 9.70e-02 5.92e-03 8.22e-01 7.50e-02 3712.3 +-294.1 278.3 +-22.0 54.21 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 3.35% -3.20% 2.35% -22.53% -3.29% -25.09% 3.00%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 9.33e-02 6.01e-03 8.05e-01 9.58e-02 3866.7 +-307.6 370.5 +-29.5 52.65 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.57% -1.75% 0.20% -0.96% 0.73% -0.24% 0.03%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 9.43e-02 6.22e-03 8.02e-01 9.76e-02 3813.2 +-304.0 372.3 +-29.7 52.62 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.53% 1.64% -0.18% 0.90% -0.67% 0.23% -0.03%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 9.37e-02 6.17e-03 8.02e-01 9.78e-02 3848.4 +-306.3 376.3 +-29.9 52.55 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.19% 0.87% -0.11% 1.06% 0.25% 1.31% -0.16%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 9.40e-02 6.07e-03 8.04e-01 9.57e-02 3829.3 +-305.1 366.6 +-29.2 52.71 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.19% -0.86% 0.11% -1.04% -0.25% -1.29% 0.15%

## Signal = SU6, Meff cut: 1200 GeV

```From MC Truth:
SM:   tot= 2276.90, A= 1980.73, B=  223.26, C=   61.94, D=   10.98
SIG:  tot=  261.65, A=   53.51, B=   89.58, C=   39.12, D=   79.45
```
effect eff. A eff. B eff. C eff. D SM est.(tot) SM est.(D) Significance plots
No systematics 8.70e-01 9.81e-02 2.72e-02 4.82e-03 2288.7 +-59.7 11.0 +-0.3 14.75 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
MET smear. 100% 8.52e-01 1.17e-01 2.58e-02 5.05e-03 2365.6 +-59.1 11.9 +-0.3 14.33 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -2.04% 19.35% -5.25% 4.74% 3.36% 8.26% -2.83%
MET smear. 20% 8.69e-01 9.86e-02 2.71e-02 4.85e-03 2290.5 +-59.7 11.1 +-0.3 14.71 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.05% 0.54% -0.32% 0.62% 0.08% 0.70% -0.25%
MET smear. 10% 8.70e-01 9.80e-02 2.72e-02 4.85e-03 2288.8 +-59.7 11.1 +-0.3 14.72 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.00% -0.03% 0.05% 0.62% 0.00% 0.62% -0.23%
JES + 10% 8.72e-01 9.61e-02 2.74e-02 4.67e-03 2281.2 +-59.8 10.7 +-0.3 14.93 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.22% -2.01% 0.65% -3.04% -0.33% -3.35% 1.22%
JES - 10% 8.67e-01 1.03e-01 2.52e-02 4.33e-03 2300.0 +-59.7 10.0 +-0.3 15.30 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.33% 5.47% -7.23% -10.26% 0.49% -9.81% 3.71%
JES + 10% ->MET 8.70e-01 9.54e-02 3.00e-02 4.86e-03 2295.3 +-59.3 11.2 +-0.3 14.69 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.03% -2.66% 10.34% 0.87% 0.29% 1.16% -0.40%
JES - 10% ->MET 8.64e-01 1.08e-01 2.39e-02 3.75e-03 2314.8 +-59.6 8.7 +-0.2 16.00 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.69% 10.60% -12.05% -22.20% 1.14% -21.31% 8.49%
MC@NLO <-> Alpgen tops 8.98e-01 7.94e-02 2.10e-02 1.51e-03 2164.5 +-61.4 3.3 +-0.1 20.50 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 3.25% -19.06% -22.99% -68.63% -5.43% -70.33% 38.96%
XS: W +5%, tt -5% 8.70e-01 9.69e-02 2.81e-02 4.89e-03 2289.8 +-59.6 11.2 +-0.3 14.67 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.01% -1.13% 3.37% 1.46% 0.04% 1.51% -0.54%
XS: W -5%, tt +5% 8.70e-01 9.91e-02 2.63e-02 4.76e-03 2287.9 +-59.9 10.9 +-0.3 14.83 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.01% 1.06% -3.16% -1.37% -0.03% -1.40% 0.51%
XS: tops lnln +1%, lnqq -1% 8.69e-01 9.91e-02 2.73e-02 4.87e-03 2293.5 +-59.7 11.2 +-0.3 14.69 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. -0.13% 1.05% 0.20% 1.00% 0.21% 1.21% -0.43%
XS: tops lnln -1%, lnqq +1% 8.71e-01 9.70e-02 2.71e-02 4.77e-03 2284.0 +-59.8 10.9 +-0.3 14.81 meff, mT
as above, wrt no sys. 0.13% -1.04% -0.20% -0.99% -0.21% -1.20% 0.43%

-- TillEifert - 22 Aug 2008
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Topic revision: r2 - 2008-08-25 - TillEifert

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